Impact assessment of post-2013 CAP measures on European agriculture
As first application of the Eururalis 3.0 model, an attempt was made to quantify the transition to a CAP with more targeted measures at the European level. The results reveal considerable methodological and data challenges to both the Eururalis modelling framework and to policy specification. In this context, a reference and a Stylized CAP Reform scenario have been developed. The reference scenario gives a possible description of production and income in the European agricultural sector in 2020 given external trends and known policy changes. The counterfactual CAP policy scenario is a stylized interpretation of the Dutch post-2013 outlook . An important assumption of the stylized CAP scenario is that direct income support under the SPS is abolished to finance the post-2013 CAP measures.

The main conclusion of this study is that the effectiveness of the various post-2013 CAP measures varies considerably with respect to the different targets such as income, production, competitiveness, land use and biodiversity. Furthermore, the impact varies between individual farms, sectors and regions.

• Competitiveness measures stimulate production most (especially in Eastern European countries) increase exports, reduce imports, reduce use of variable inputs and decrease agricultural prices, which is beneficial from a consumer point of view and leads to a higher national income.
• Payments to valuable areas keep resources (land and labour) dedicated to production in these areas. The overall impact is that these payments keep land in production, increase land prices, increase GVA per farm located in the valuable areas and increase biodiversity.
• Payments to ecosystem services effect production and income in the EU-27 more widely (less regional concentrated), reduce variable input use, keep land in production, increase land prices, increase GVA per average farm and increase biodiversity.
• Abolition of the direct income support under the SPS, decreases agricultural production, (slightly) increases imports, decreases exports, increases prices of agricultural products, decreases the GVA per farm sharply, decreases the total area used for agricultural production and decreases land prices.

Source: Helming, et al. (2010). Impact assessment of post-2013 CAP measures on European agriculture. LEI report. The Hague .

Measurement of biodiversity in agricultural areas
Biodiversity in Agricultural areas in the EU was assessed with a newly developed indicator. This indicator is based on BIOSCORE and a recently developed land use intensity modelling approach, which further details the CLUE land use modelling as performed in EURURALIS 2.0. This biodiversity indicator is applied to an initial situation (for the year 2000) and to two scenarios (for 2020). These scenarios are the Dutch post-2013 outlook and a reference scenario, which are mentioned above. More about this analysis can be found here.

Eururalis 2.0 conclusions
The main conclusions from the Eururalis 2.0 study can be found